🪞 Light Street
Build a basket from the top picks →
🔮 Predicted next buys: quarter ending 2026-06-30
Pure model output for Light Street’s next 13F filing, no public confirmation yet. Probabilities are the model’s raw scores.
| # | Ticker | Company | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc | 88% |
| 2 | TAL | Tal Education Group- Adr | 71% |
| 3 | CNDT | Conduent Inc | 67% |
| 4 | HAN | Hawaiian Holdings Inc | 66% |
| 5 | NSY | Nice Ltd - Spon Adr | 66% |
| 6 | CYEUR | Cypress Semiconductor Corp | 65% |
| 7 | LNWO | Light & Wonder Inc | 65% |
| 8 | DEI | Douglas Emmett Inc | 61% |
| 9 | ELS | Equity Lifestyle Properties | 60% |
| 10 | BR | Broadridge Financial Solutio | 60% |
📉 Predicted exits, conviction fading
Of Light Street’s current disclosed holdings, the names a model flags as most likely to be EXITED or TRIMMED next quarter, before the 13F shows it. Model score (not a calibrated probability), ranked. Holdings as of 2026-03-31.
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last move | Sell likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMPL | Amplitude Inc | 0.37% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 68 |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corp | 1.28% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 67 |
| IOT | Samsara Inc | 2.28% | trimmed last Q | ▲▲ 62 |
| DDOG | Datadog Inc | 0.88% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 60 |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 2.29% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 57 |
| BILL | Bill Holdings Inc | 4.48% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 56 |
| LITE | Lumentum Hldgs Inc | 0.38% | just entered | ▲ 51 |
| CHYM | Chime Finl Inc | 7.28% | trimmed last Q | ▲ 51 |
⚠️ This predicts the ACTION (whether Light Street reduces the position), not a return and not a short. A 13F shows long positions only, so a “sell” here means exiting or cutting a long, never shorting the stock. Walk-forward validated on the decision (AUC ≈ 0.66), but acting on it is not shown to make money. Research, not advice.
📜 Top disclosed holdings: Mar 2026
| Ticker | Company | Weight | Last change |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufac | 21.30% | ➕ Added |
| NVDA | Nvidia Corporation | 8.89% | ➖ Trimmed |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc | 8.68% | ✊ Held |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc | 8.35% | ✊ Held |
| CHYM | Chime Finl Inc | 7.28% | ➖ Trimmed |
| MKSI | Mks Inc. | 5.26% | ➕ Added |
| - | Jfrog Ltd | 5.05% | ➕ Added |
| AMZN | Amazon Com Inc | 4.87% | ➕ Added |
| GTLB | Gitlab Inc | 4.74% | ➕ Added |
| BILL | Bill Holdings Inc | 4.48% | ➖ Trimmed |
| CPNG | Coupang Inc | 3.72% | ➕ Added |
| AMKR | Amkor Technology Inc | 3.43% | ➕ Added |
| - | Asml Hldg Nv | 2.71% | ✊ Held |
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc | 2.29% | ➖ Trimmed |
| IOT | Samsara Inc | 2.28% | ➖ Trimmed |
Source: SEC Form 13F (public domain), long U.S. equity positions only, disclosed up to 45 days after quarter-end. Top 15 of 23 shown.
💲 Where they bought: accumulation cost
13F shows holdings, not trade prices. Implied average cost is total value ÷ shares; the zone is the price range that quarter, where they accumulated. “vs cost” is today versus that average. This is where they bought, not a future price.
| Ticker | Avg cost | Accumulation zone | Today | vs cost | Dip target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | $337.95 | $316–$386 | $420.39 | +24.4% | $315.00 |
| NVDA | $174.40 | $165–$195 | $207.40 | +18.9% | $159.50 |
| AVGO | $309.51 | $293–$353 | $370.83 | +19.8% | $288.51 |
| AMD | $203.43 | $191–$260 | $500.94 | +146.2% | $212.06 |
| CHYM | $18.73 | $17–$28 | $22.09 | +17.9% | $22.81 |
| MKSI | $229.81 | $168–$263 | $368.78 | +60.5% | $214.51 |
| AMZN | $208.27 | $199–$247 | $247.23 | +18.7% | $202.01 |
| GTLB | $21.64 | $20–$38 | $32.72 | +51.2% | $31.17 |
| BILL | $38.30 | $36–$56 | $41.37 | +8.0% | $45.98 |
| CPNG | $18.88 | $17–$24 | $16.62 | -12.0% | $19.21 |
Dip target = the recent high discounted by this investor’s historical tendency to add on weakness. Behavioral, not a guarantee.
🎯 Disclosed options: calls vs puts
13F discloses option positions too. Calls lean bullish or levered; puts lean bearish or hedging. This is the not-just-buying side of what they disclose.
| Ticker | Position | Lean |
|---|---|---|
| TSM | puts | bearish / hedge |
Source: 13F option lines (put_call). Disclosed positions, not advice.
🧬 Factor fingerprint, the style behind the book
81% of Light Street’s day-to-day swings are explained by public, buyable factors (Fama-French 5 + momentum), regressed on their current disclosed book (12 of 13 names, ~451 trading days). Market beta 1.46.
⚠️ This is the part the great investors can’t hide: their style is a tilt toward known factors, and every one of these is sold as a cheap index ETF. Buying the factors gets you most of the book for a few basis points. What’s left after the factors (the residual) is noisy on a single concentrated book and is not a reliable edge, read this as transparency about the style you’re copying, not a secret signal. Loadings are in-sample on current static weights, U.S. long positions only. Research, not advice.
🔔 Follow this mirror
New filings and predicted-buy refreshes are published to every reader at once, weekly digest (email) · build a basket.
Prior Moves is a research publication: one impersonal model portfolio per investor, identical for every reader. You place any trades yourself at your own broker. No execution, no custody, no individualised advice.