Prior Moves
We predict what the world's best investors buy next, before the filing is public.
Built by Howard Chan. Live and free at priormoves.com, and honest about every number.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
13F filings are public, but six weeks stale. We predict the next buy before it files.
That is the whole wedge.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
03 · How it works in one breath
One model per investor, trained on how they actually buy.
01
Learn the style
Filing history plus 218 signals per name.
→
02
Rank next buys
And the holdings they are likely to drop.
→
03
Publish, free
Live boards at priormoves.com.
About six weeks before the 13F is public.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
04 · Proof it predicts
Proof it predicts, not that it prints money.
~3x
next buys, better than random
0.38–0.80
AUC by investor · median 0.61
~0.67
sell signal, walk-forward AUC
72,268
calibrated out-of-sample calls
Shuffle the labels and the model collapses to a coin flip. The
signal is not look-ahead.
We show the backtest and say plainly it is not statistically
significant. Honesty is the brand.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
05 · What we shipped, speed of learning
Shipped in weeks, all live and honest
✓
Buy board
✓
Sell board
✓
Factor fingerprint
on every investor
✓
One-site rebuild
The pace is the point. No roadmap of promises.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
06 · Why us
The honesty discipline is a founder trait
HC
Howard Chan
Founder · builder · incoming Cambridge HSPS
Plus collaborator
A small team that under-claims on purpose. Calibrated honesty
is the moat.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
07 · Why now
Right team, right moment
Mainstream
Copy-investing is now normal retail behavior.
Feasible
Per-investor ML prediction is newly within reach.
Scarce
Trust is the rarest asset in retail finance.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
10s of M
retail copy-investors
We take the honesty-valuing, anticipation-seeking slice first.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
09 · Model
Simple to start, expandable
Free
Publisher core
General circulation, not an adviser (Lowe v. SEC).
$8/mo
Paid tier
Full ranked list and per-investor deep dives.
Later
Data licensing
The prediction feed for brokers and fintechs.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
10 · The honest gap
Distribution is the constraint, not the product.
Where we are
Product live, early free digest readers. Reach is small and we
will say the number.
What the program unlocks
Intros, distribution, and the first paid cohort.
PRIOR MOVESResearch, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026
Into the program, and raising a pre-seed round.
From the program: distribution, intros, the first paid
cohort.
From the round: runway to turn a validated model into
reach.
Vision: the
trusted, anticipatory research layer for following smart money
across markets.
PRIOR MOVESpriormoves.com · Research, not advice. DYOR.
As of Jun 2026